As the world waits to see if Russia will invade Ukraine, an exclusive new poll of both countries for CNN finds that twice as many Russians believe it would be right for Moscow to use military force to prevent Kyiv from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as say it would be wrong.
One out of every two Russians (50%) says it would be right, while only a quarter (25%) say it would be wrong. The other quarter (25%) are unsure, according to the survey.
But the poll also found that more Russians think it would be wrong than right to use military force “to reunite Russia and Ukraine” – two countries with a long and complicated history of being intertwined.
It’s a close call, but 43% of Russians said use of military force against Ukraine to join it to Russia would be wrong, while 36% said it would be right. (The rest of the respondents said they didn’t know if it would be right or wrong.)
Perhaps unsurprisingly, most people in Ukraine disagree with the use of force against them. Seven out of 10 respondents there said it would be wrong for Russia to use military force to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO (70%) or to reunite the two countries (73%).
One in two Russians feels the use of force is justified to keep Ukraine from joining NATO.
We asked: Would it be right for Russia to use military force …
… to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO
Russian respondents
And most Ukrainians reject Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assertion in a speech on Monday that their country has no historical basis and is essentially a creation of the Soviet Union.
Across the country and across all ages, a majority of Ukrainians say they are not “one people” with Russians and that the two countries should not be one.
The survey, of more than 1,000 people in each country, was carried out online from February 7 to 15, before Putin’s speech Monday and Moscow’s recognition of two breakaway separatist republics in Ukraine.
Many in Russia believe their country would be fundamentally threatened by further expansion of NATO to Ukraine, according to veteran Russian and Soviet-era TV host and journalist Vladimir Pozner.
“It speaks to the view that, should Ukraine become a NATO member, and should NATO forces be deployed on Russia’s doorstep, that would constitute an existential threat and therefore cannot be allowed,” Pozner told CNN by email.
Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank in London, painted a darker picture of the Russian perspective.
“Modern-day Russia has a syndrome of collapsing empires,” she told CNN by email. “The loss of these lands is presented as ‘historical injustice’ that should be rectified, including by force. Ukraine is viewed as a crown jewel that is ‘being stolen by NATO.’ Tapping into old Soviet scaremongering of the US and NATO, Russians believe it is an aggressive bloc that is in a way of Russia-Ukrainian unity.”
First strike fears
Contrary to Western warnings that Russian President Vladimir Putin is putting forces in place for an attack on the country’s western neighbor, only 13% of Russians think the Kremlin is likely to initiate military action towards Ukraine.
Most Russians also do not expect a Ukrainian attack on their country — only 31% of Russians said that was likely. In fact, two out of three (65%) expect a peaceful end to the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
“The reason why 75% of Russians think Russia will not invade Ukraine is simply because of what they read in their newspapers and see on their TV. There is basically no hysteria, no beating of the war drum, a consistent message that we do not want a war and will not start one,” Pozner said.
Pozner said Russians are neither naïve nor ignorant of Western leaders’ warnings that Putin is considering invading Ukraine.
He explained: “Russians know what Western leaders are saying. Their statements are widely featured in the media. The general feeling is that the West in fact wants Russia to attack Ukraine because that would be to the West’s advantage, it is goading Russia to attack.”
But Pozner argued that Russians understand an invasion of Ukraine would be costly.
“They are also of the opinion that, while Ukraine could not stand up to an all-out Russian invasion, Russia would lose much more from that than any military victory would win,” he said.
